Originally Posted By: joemikeb
There is a statistic missing however. [...] RATE

The biggest problem with that statistic is the number of infected people, which determines the other variables you mention. Accuracy here requires for everyone to be tested, because many of those infected only show minor symptoms. This makes all available numbers everywhere iffy, even without resorting to ‘massaging’ the data some governments are suspected of.

Right now, such wholesale testing is not going to happen, but the actual number of infected people may be estimated after the fact, e.g., by determining anti-COVID-19 antibody presence in the population. The underlying mechanism is that whomever has been exposed to COVID-19 produced antibodies to the virus, regardless of their symptoms. (This may actually be more accurate than the COVID-19 test data, because people may get infected after having that test, and hence not be counted there.) In the case of SARS1 (COVID-19 = SARS2), such antibodies are readily detected even now, almost 2 decades after the 2003 outbreak. Of course, it requires another test, while yet other population measurements during/after the current pandemic may be accurate enough for such estimates, as well as for other purposes.

With regard to the other part of the RATE equations, the number of dead is more obvious, but also dependent on the medical characteristics of the target group, as well as on timely available medical care, both major variables. We’ll learn a lot about those in the near future, but it will take a while. tongue


alternaut moderator