Back in Jan. 2008 i started a Lounge thread at MFIF called “Obama is gonna get your Mama†—because i had this feeling Obama would win that November. [not just that i wanted him to, or that he might get lucky... but that it would in fact happen.] And he did.
This year, there are too many variables for any overwhelming certainty. We've got “it's the economy stupid†again... we've got OWS and its inherent chaotic (as well as passionate) behavior... we've got that NDAA signing business, which seems like it's gonna cost Obama a few million votes right there... AND, we've got Ron Paul: the 2nd coming of Ross Perot.
Despite all of Paul's numerous unelectable qualities, his potential [as a "protest" candidate] for swaying the inclinations of enough emotional voters will likely have a measurable effect... especially if we end up in a 3-way general election in November (with him on a libertarian/independent ticket).
Now... conventional wisdom proffered by most pundits (plus the fact that Paul is contending against Republicans in their current caucuses) predicts that his presence would effectuate a guaranteed loss for whichever GOP nominee goes up against Obama.
However (for reasons related to items mentioned in paragraph 2), i can see where a 3-way race might just as easily enable the elephant party to eke out a victory instead. Even if it's an ordinary 2-way race, some dissatisfied citizens will go the "write-in" route. Thus, the resulting reality seems too close to call at the moment... in my estimation. [we can also factor in the assorted voter registration tactics which local right wing legislators have implemented.]
So, what does my 'feeling' tell me? I hate to say it... and i hope i'm wrong... but the way our luck has been going lately (not to mention the Mayan calendar), it doesn't feel good at the moment, for the upcoming election. I see crazy times ahead.
Your thoughts? (commiserative or contradictory)
Last edited by Hal Itosis; 01/04/12 07:33 AM.
