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artie, I'm not sure where the bee in your bonnet originates here.



You expressed dubiousness—about whether or not the Mac App Store can succeed in the way that the iOS App Store has—in reply to my statement regarding the effect of the "app store" concept on software sales. So either we were discussing, among other things, software sales, or you were making a "pretty much non-responsive reply" to me.

Be that as it may, it's entirely unclear to me how you're evaluating the success of the iOS App Store, and thus unclear how you think the Mac App Store would need to perform in order to be credited with similar success. Here's my view:

I think the success of the iOS App Store lies in having established Apple's domination of the mobile-device-as-application-appliance market. This domination, arising initially from the fact that Apple beat everyone else out of the gate, is due partly to the ease of acquiring apps from iOS devices, including the ease of paying for them; partly to the vetting process Apple employs, which is highly effective at ensuring that apps pretty much Just Work and that malware is excluded (as opposed to the anything-goes Android model); and last but certainly not least, partly to the enormous popularity among developers of programming for iOS. Partly that's a matter of the sophistication and simplicity of Apple's developer tools, and partly it's a matter of the potential profits to be had by developing an iOS hit.

There's a gold rush aura surrounding the iOS App Store from the developer persepective. As with a literal gold rush, many more will dip their pans into the stream than will come up with nuggets. But the 2.5 billion dollars Apple had paid to developers as of June 2011's WWDC represents a whole different magnitude of incentive than that available on any other mobile platform. That's why the calculations I made using the data you provided are so relevant to the question of "success;" they result in a revenue stream which continues to attract many of the most talented developers out there.

I agree with your premise that the Mac App Store will feature fewer apps, and that those which aren't free will tend to cost more than iOS apps, and that Mac users will, on average, purchase fewer of them than iOS users. I think, though, that Mac users of 2011 and beyond will purchase more apps than Mac users have in the past, and, furthermore, that they'll allocate the money they do spend differently: less on big-ticket products from mainstream software companies, more on a smorgasbord of creative products from smaller developlers. And this won't so much be due to existing Mac users changing long established behaviors as it will to the ongoing rapid growth of a new user base drawn in large part from folks who were attracted to Apple's products via iOS devices, and are therefore completely comfortable with the "app store" concept and the computer-as-application-appliance mode; that's how they already do things.

The bottom line is that if the revenue the Mac App Store generates is sufficient to attract the same type of interest on the part of developers that the iOS App Store does, they'll be happy to develop for the Mac. Lots of them. Which means lots of apps to choose from, for folks running an OS with app purchasing built right in, folks who are used to purchasing apps from their devices with one-click ease. Which means lots of apps purchased, which means lots of developer revenues, and so on.

Notice I said, "if." Never having purchased an iOS app, precluded by hardware limitations from visiting the Mac App store, I'm certainly incapable of shedding any light on the probabilities from personal experience. The point is, the Mac App Store doesn't need to achieve 15 billion downloads in 3 years to be a success; it simply needs to provide an experience for both users and developers that's markedly superior to those offered by other platforms. I'm inclined to think that it will, but, truly, your guess is as good as mine.