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#19934 - 01/03/12 10:43 PM that January feeling
Hal Itosis Offline


Registered: 09/03/09
Loc: 10.6.8 (build 10K549)
Back in Jan. 2008 i started a Lounge thread at MFIF called “Obama is gonna get your Mama” —because i had this feeling Obama would win that November. [not just that i wanted him to, or that he might get lucky... but that it would in fact happen.] And he did.

This year, there are too many variables for any overwhelming certainty. We've got “it's the economy stupid” again... we've got OWS and its inherent chaotic (as well as passionate) behavior... we've got that NDAA signing business, which seems like it's gonna cost Obama a few million votes right there... AND, we've got Ron Paul: the 2nd coming of Ross Perot.

Despite all of Paul's numerous unelectable qualities, his potential [as a "protest" candidate] for swaying the inclinations of enough emotional voters will likely have a measurable effect... especially if we end up in a 3-way general election in November (with him on a libertarian/independent ticket).

Now... conventional wisdom proffered by most pundits (plus the fact that Paul is contending against Republicans in their current caucuses) predicts that his presence would effectuate a guaranteed loss for whichever GOP nominee goes up against Obama.

However (for reasons related to items mentioned in paragraph 2), i can see where a 3-way race might just as easily enable the elephant party to eke out a victory instead. Even if it's an ordinary 2-way race, some dissatisfied citizens will go the "write-in" route. Thus, the resulting reality seems too close to call at the moment... in my estimation. [we can also factor in the assorted voter registration tactics which local right wing legislators have implemented.]

So, what does my 'feeling' tell me? I hate to say it... and i hope i'm wrong... but the way our luck has been going lately (not to mention the Mayan calendar), it doesn't feel good at the moment, for the upcoming election. I see crazy times ahead.


Your thoughts? (commiserative or contradictory)


Edited by Hal Itosis (01/03/12 11:33 PM)

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#19935 - 01/03/12 11:05 PM Re: that January feeling [Re: Hal Itosis]
tacit Offline


Registered: 08/03/09
Loc: Portland, Oregon, USA
I don't think the GOP has a prayer.

The Republican party has, to my eye, collectively lost its mind. If you look at the Republican primary contenders, they're like a three-ring circus of reactionary, anti-intellectual nutjobbery, each clambering over the other to get the wingnut vote...and I don't think that any of them has a prayer in a general election. It quite boggles me just how far the party has gone over to weird, ideological demagoguery.

I can remember in my lifetime when the Republicans were the party of reason, prudence, and progress. It was aDemocratic president who pledged to get us to the moon, but the scientists and engineers and astronauts and accountants and researchers who made it happen were Republican, almost every one of 'em. But somehwere along the way, the Republican party became the party of anti-intellectualism, rejecting science and reason in favor of emotional rhetoric and superstition--and with the Tea party, who not only take anti-intellectualism to an extreme but have made good old-fashioned, in-your-face, we-hate-minorities-and-how-do-you-like-THEM-apples racism fashionable again, I think it's finally self-destructed. Die-hard Republicans are becoming embattled as mainstream America turns away from them--the Tea Party is being voted down in state and local elections even in such traditionally reactionary states as Arizona, and I don't think that the GOP can win a presidential election without mainstream votes. What works in a primary doesn't work in a general election.
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#19936 - 01/03/12 11:26 PM Re: that January feeling [Re: tacit]
Hal Itosis Offline


Registered: 09/03/09
Loc: 10.6.8 (build 10K549)
[oops, i used the wrong word above (primary)... editing now]

But your answer is very sensible.
Problem being: is the general electorate actually as sensible as you are?

Let's HOPE so.

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#19937 - 01/04/12 12:42 AM Re: that January feeling [Re: tacit]
grelber Offline


Registered: 08/05/09
Loc: North of 49th ||
In that vein, ever since Ike (= Dwight David Eisenhower, 34th President — for those who have no knowledge of history) warned of the military-industrial complex, the Grand Old Party became not so grand anymore.
And just look who ran against Lyndon Johnson as the Republican flag-bearer in 1964 — Barry Goldwater, who as the hawkish reactionary appears positively benign in comparison with his GOP confrères currently on the hustings.

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#19941 - 01/04/12 06:54 AM Re: that January feeling [Re: tacit]
Pendragon Offline


Registered: 08/04/09
Loc: Georgetown, Texas, USA
Originally Posted By: tacit
I don't think that the GOP can win a presidential election without mainstream votes. What works in a primary doesn't work in a general election.


Sounds like the RNC has borrowed from the DNC playbook.
_________________________
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27" i7 iMac (10.13.6), iPhone Xs Max (12.1)

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. ~Voltaire

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#19942 - 01/04/12 07:48 AM Re: that January feeling [Re: Pendragon]
artie505 Online


Registered: 08/04/09
_________________________
The new Great Equalizer is the SEND button.

In Memory Of Harv: Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. ~Voltaire

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#19946 - 01/04/12 09:36 AM Re: that January feeling [Re: Hal Itosis]
alternaut Offline

Moderator

Registered: 08/04/09
Originally Posted By: Hal Itosis
is the general electorate actually as sensible as you are?

If you have to go by what people give you as reasons to vote one way or the other, you almost have to conclude that a large section of the electorate doesn't vote rationally. It's anybody's guess as to how to translate 'rational' into 'sensible'. Combined with the (increasing?) influence on voters of ambient impressions down to the last minute, this makes it difficult to predict election outcomes.
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#19949 - 01/04/12 11:26 AM Re: that January feeling [Re: alternaut]
tacit Offline


Registered: 08/03/09
Loc: Portland, Oregon, USA
A large part of the electorate DOESn'T vote rationally. It's always been that way. People vote their identity, not their interests.

For example, people who don't make millions of dollars a year routinely vote for candidates who unabashedly put the interests of millionaires first. There are a lot of reasons why a poor person might vote for a candidate whose policies only benefit the rich at the expense of the poor; lots of Americans truly, sincerely believe that they will be rich one day; lots of poor white Americans see poor minority Americans as their enemy, and wish to distance themselves from them; lots of people subscribe to the Just World fallacy, and assume that if someone is successful, it is because that person deserves to be successful. So, time after time, year after year, people vote against their own interests.

People also vote narrow interests over their own well-being. A person who is unemployed and who blames immigrants for his joblessness may vote for a candidate who comes down hard against immigration, even if that candidate's other policies hurt the cause of the jobless (for example, a candidate who comes down against immigration but also supports policies that encourage businesses to outsource to foreign countries).

People also vote their perceptions, rather than reality. People rarely read the laws that affect them; instead, they listen to bumper stickers and sound bites. A lot of folks are familiar with so-called "frivolous lawsuits" and support laws that are billed at ending them, even though genuine frivolous lawsuits are incredibly rare and most laws aimed at abolishing them actually serve the purpose of preventing citizens from suing companies for any reason, frivolous or no. I watched a documentary some time ago that talked to a man who'd been a campaigner in favor of a law in his state that was set to eradicate frivolous lawsuits. The law passed. Later, that man was severely injured by a doctor who, as it turned out, had lost his license to practice medicine for gross negligence and continued to practice anyway. The man attempted to sue the doctor, and discovered that he couldn't. The law that had passed--the law he had campaigned for--effectively barred private citizens from suing corporations at all. The guy had never read the law he went door to door supporting!

Another way that people vote their perceptions has to do with framing. If a particular candidate frames an issue in a way that appeals to the prejudices of his supporters, he can easily get people to vote against their own interests. Examples of this include framing the health insurance reform law as "socialized medicine," even though it's not even remotely close. What we have is basically a law that makes some minor changes to health insurance regulation being treated as though it is a major, radical overhaul of health care in general; since it was framed as "socialized medicine," as ridiculous as that is, people who actually benefit it still oppose it, out of a knee-jerk hatred of anything they believe to be "socialized."

And finally, people vote their prejudices. People who identify as evangelical Christian will tend to vote in favor of candidates who identify themselves as evangelical Christian, even if those candidates endorse policies that hurt the voters (for example, by endorsing policies that financially support companies who move jobs out of the country). If a candidate condemns homosexuality, voters who don't like gays may vote for him even if he endorses policies that hurt those voters.
_________________________
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#19954 - 01/04/12 02:45 PM Re: that January feeling [Re: tacit]
Hal Itosis Offline


Registered: 09/03/09
Loc: 10.6.8 (build 10K549)
Yep... perceptions and delusions. Agreed.

Plus it's fairly easy (it seems) for congressmen —who can gerrymander their particular districts —to get re-elected. But presidents don't have any such tool, to ward off occasional anti-incumbent fever.

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#19957 - 01/04/12 03:54 PM Re: that January feeling [Re: Hal Itosis]
dboh Offline


Registered: 08/04/09
Quote:
Despite all of Paul's numerous unelectable qualities


I listened to a few NPR call-in shows today, and at least two Iowa-Paul voters said that if Paul didn't get the Republican nomination, they'd be voting for Obama. The Republican field scared them silly.

I think that while negative campaigning might "work" in the short term, it also buys the Republicans the kind of voters who can support the clown car candidates they've got now. Republicans are now reaping what they have sown. If anything, these voters will force Romney to move to the right, and that will alienate the independent voters both parties need.

Crazy times ahead? For sure, but I still think the grown-up in the room will prevail at the end of the day.

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#19958 - 01/04/12 04:01 PM Re: that January feeling [Re: tacit]
dboh Offline


Registered: 08/04/09
Quote:

And finally, people vote their prejudices.


They may want to, but their candidate's hubris may drive them away. On the same NPR show I mentioned above, an Iowa African-American evangelical said she was really disappointed when Santorum made his crack the other day about government just throwing money at black people. She pointed out that least 84% percent of Iowans who receive public assistance are white, and she didn't know how she could support someone who said something like that.

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#19962 - 01/04/12 06:09 PM Re: that January feeling [Re: tacit]
joemikeb Offline
Moderator

Registered: 08/04/09
Loc: Fort Worth, Texas
Originally Posted By: tacit
I don't think the GOP has a prayer.

The Republican party has, to my eye, collectively lost its mind. If you look at the Republican primary contenders, they're like a three-ring circus of reactionary, anti-intellectual nutjobbery, each clambering over the other to get the wingnut vote...and I don't think that any of them has a prayer in a general election. It quite boggles me just how far the party has gone over to weird, ideological demagoguery.

I can remember in my lifetime when the Republicans were the party of reason, prudence, and progress. It was aDemocratic president who pledged to get us to the moon, but the scientists and engineers and astronauts and accountants and researchers who made it happen were Republican, almost every one of 'em. But somehwere along the way, the Republican party became the party of anti-intellectualism, rejecting science and reason in favor of emotional rhetoric and superstition--and with the Tea party, who not only take anti-intellectualism to an extreme but have made good old-fashioned, in-your-face, we-hate-minorities-and-how-do-you-like-THEM-apples racism fashionable again, I think it's finally self-destructed. Die-hard Republicans are becoming embattled as mainstream America turns away from them--the Tea Party is being voted down in state and local elections even in such traditionally reactionary states as Arizona, and I don't think that the GOP can win a presidential election without mainstream votes. What works in a primary doesn't work in a general election.

You say it TACIT, I stutter. Personally I was hoping Perry would do better in Iowa. It might have kept him out of Austin longer.
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#19966 - 01/05/12 08:25 AM Re: that January feeling [Re: dboh]
Hal Itosis Offline


Registered: 09/03/09
Loc: 10.6.8 (build 10K549)
Originally Posted By: dboh
I listened to a few NPR call-in shows today, and at least two Iowa-Paul voters said that if Paul didn't get the Republican nomination, they'd be voting for Obama. The Republican field scared them silly.

Thanks, that's somewhat reassuring... though “at least two” also sounds slightly anemic.

I still fear many will simply write in Paul's name, as a symbolic 'protest' vote of sorts. (Or perhaps not even vote at all... in order to 'wash their hands' of the whole situation).

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#19967 - 01/05/12 11:06 AM Re: that January feeling [Re: tacit]
Bensheim Offline


Registered: 08/16/09
Loc: UK
Speaking as a Brit (possibly the only one here?), is America ready for a Mormon President?

Over here, devout Mormons are regarded generally as (how can I put this?) faintly bonkers.

Also, what is this first name: Mitt? Is it short for a longer name? Over here, first names like that are regarded as (ditto) somewhat bonkers.

Take 2 bonkers-strikes and you wouldn't get to be the most powerful person on the planet, but then we do things very differently when electing a political leader.

It makes me wonder if the US electorate would tolerate a Scientologist candidate?

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#19969 - 01/05/12 11:52 AM Re: that January feeling [Re: Bensheim]
Hal Itosis Offline


Registered: 09/03/09
Loc: 10.6.8 (build 10K549)
Willard Mitt Romney

smile (i've never met any "Willards" myself)

the best phrase i've heard so far is “Mitt for brains.” grin


Edited by Hal Itosis (01/05/12 11:57 AM)

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#19970 - 01/05/12 11:59 AM Re: that January feeling [Re: Bensheim]
grelber Offline


Registered: 08/05/09
Loc: North of 49th ||
Originally Posted By: Bensheim
... is America ready for a Mormon President?
{snip}
It makes me wonder if the US electorate would tolerate a Scientologist candidate?

Hey, nobody thought that Roman Catholic could become President, and then JFK came along.
Anybody who believes in fairies, extraterrestrials, orishas and the like could just as easily vote for a Mormon or a Scientologist or a Santerian. Delusions come in many forms and, as pointed out elsewhere, may or may not dictate one's voting preferences.
The American political system wasn't always a joke, but it's sure a sick one now. crazy tongue

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#19971 - 01/05/12 12:05 PM Re: that January feeling [Re: grelber]
Hal Itosis Offline


Registered: 09/03/09
Loc: 10.6.8 (build 10K549)
ironically, Mormon Mitt is still married to wife #1 (high-school sweethearts no doubt).

Whereas Newt Blingrich (mister evangelical family values man) is on wife #3.

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#19973 - 01/05/12 01:12 PM Re: that January feeling [Re: Hal Itosis]
jchuzi Offline


Registered: 08/04/09
Loc: New York State
Originally Posted By: Hal Itosis
Whereas Newt Blingrich (mister evangelical family values man) is on wife #3.
Literally or figuratively? wink

And speaking of evangelicals (and any other religious bent), here's A Flowchart for Choosing a Religion


Edited by jchuzi (01/05/12 01:18 PM)
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OS 10.15.4, iMac Retina 5K 27-inch, late 2014, 3.5 GHz Intel Core i5, 1 TB fusion drive, 16 GB RAM, Epson SureColor P600, Photoshop CC, Lightroom CC, MS Office 365

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#19975 - 01/05/12 02:18 PM Re: that January feeling [Re: Hal Itosis]
joemikeb Offline
Moderator

Registered: 08/04/09
Loc: Fort Worth, Texas
Quote:
Whereas Newt Blingrich (mister evangelical family values man) is on wife #3.

Newt recently converted to Catholicism. That was enough for some of my Catholic friends to consider switching to Southern Baptist. confused
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#19976 - 01/05/12 02:30 PM Re: that January feeling [Re: Hal Itosis]
dboh Offline


Registered: 08/04/09
Sorry for the small sample sizes, but that's all I heard. wink

Here's another small sample: One of my nephews and a few of his friends are pretty devoted to Paul. Should he win the nomination (highly unlikely), they wouldn't be lodging a protest vote by voting for him; they'd be voting for someone they fully and enthusiastically support.

I came across this very thoughtful analysis of Paul and his attraction. I sent my nephew the link, but I don't think he even intends to read it. In that way, he's very much like his rabidly Republican father. Steeltrap mind made up.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/01/the-messenger/250685/

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#19977 - 01/05/12 03:22 PM Re: that January feeling [Re: Hal Itosis]
grelber Offline


Registered: 08/05/09
Loc: North of 49th ||
Originally Posted By: Hal Itosis
Willard Mitt Romney
(i've never met any "Willards" myself)


As I recall, Willard was a rat and the star of a movie by the same name (1971), followed by Ben, wherein a "lonely boy befriends the murderous, telepathic leader of the pack of rats trained by Willard."

Almost sounds like the Republican campaign ...

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#19984 - 01/05/12 09:18 PM Re: that January feeling [Re: joemikeb]
Hal Itosis Offline


Registered: 09/03/09
Loc: 10.6.8 (build 10K549)
Originally Posted By: joemikeb
Newt recently converted to Catholicism.

I'm no expert, but it must have been tricky for that conversion to get the Church's blessing... given Newt's serial matrimonial record. But perhaps a large donation to the local Bishop's favorite charity <cough,cough> helped overcome any technical obstacles.

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#20038 - 01/09/12 03:00 PM Re: that January feeling [Re: tacit]
Virtual1 Offline


Registered: 08/04/09
Loc: Iowa
Originally Posted By: tacit
I don't think the GOP has a prayer.

The Republican party has, to my eye, collectively lost its mind.


I heard a priceless quote a few days ago. It was one of those "off the record / don't give my name out" comments from a congressman (republican) that was doing a little Q&A

Reporter: "Who can beat Obama?"

Senator: "A mammal."

Reporter: ...

Senator: "Unfortunately, they're all reptiles."

Funny, sad, and true. I still can't believe Romney is heading the pack, considering some of his truly scary positions. But every one of them appears to have at least several screws loose. It's pathetic really. I remember when Obama got elected, all my Republican friends were saying "Don't worry, he's going to be a one-term president", and I was thinking they were probably right. But I'm thinking probably not at this point. (and God help us if Obama loses)

I think even some of the "staunch" (blind party voter) Republicans are going to be thinking hard about who they really want to vote for here in a bit. "Are you REALLY going to vote for that?)
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#20045 - 01/09/12 04:01 PM Re: that January feeling [Re: Virtual1]
dboh Offline


Registered: 08/04/09
Ha! Not even reptiles. Within about a 24-hour span, Romney has provided three video-friendly clips that will batter him silly: "I've been afraid I couldn't made a payroll," "I've worried a couple of times that I might get a pink slip," and "I like being able to fire people."

The jokes write themselves.

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#20051 - 01/10/12 06:04 AM Re: that January feeling [Re: grelber]
grelber Offline


Registered: 08/05/09
Loc: North of 49th ||
Inexplicably (read: suddenly and without any reason) all posts in this thread starting with ryck's "Canada Party" reference and everything in response to same has disappeared from this thread. What's going on?! confused crazy

EDIT: If this is a fluke or unless legitimation for the missing information is presented, I plan to 'replant' the missing hotlinks, plus another harder-edged item of similar ilk.


Edited by grelber (01/10/12 07:43 AM)

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